Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
